A new opinion poll by Global Info Analytics indicates that the race toward Ghana’s 2028 presidential election is tightening, with Johnson Asiedu Nketia closing the gap on Mahamudu Bawumia.
The survey, released in March 2026, shows that both contenders are now separated by a slim margin, particularly among floating voters who are expected to play a decisive role in the next general elections.
According to the poll, Asiedu Nketia holds 38 percent support among undecided voters, slightly ahead of Bawumia’s 36 percent. The narrow two-point difference places the contest within a statistical margin, underscoring the increasing competitiveness of the race
When the scope is expanded to include individuals who did not vote in the 2024 elections but are likely to participate in 2028, the gap widens marginally. In this category, Asiedu Nketia leads with 39 percent, compared to Bawumia’s 35 percent, suggesting a growing appeal among new or previously disengaged voters.
Despite the tightening margins, both candidates maintain strong backing within their respective political bases. Bawumia commands overwhelming support among New Patriotic Party (NPP) adherents, securing 83 percent, while Asiedu Nketia enjoys a solid 74 percent approval among supporters of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The findings highlight the critical role of swing voters and voter turnout in shaping the eventual outcome of the 2028 elections. Analysts suggest that while traditional party loyalty remains intact, the ultimate result may depend on each candidate’s ability to attract undecided voters and mobilise broader electoral participation.
The report concludes that Ghana’s next presidential election is unlikely to produce a landslide victory, but rather a closely contested outcome where marginal gains could prove decisive.
